Winter Forecast: Which States Are Preparing for Early Snow?

Are you wondering if it’s time to pull the winter coats out of storage? Recent forecasts from weather experts suggest that shifting global weather patterns could bring heavy snowfall to several parts of the United States sooner than many residents might expect. We’ll explore which states are in the forecast and explain the science behind this early winter outlook.

Understanding the Shifting Weather Patterns

Before we pinpoint the specific states, it’s important to understand why forecasters are predicting an early arrival of winter weather. The primary driver this year is the powerful climate pattern known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, which alternates between El Niño, La Niña, and neutral conditions.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center, the current phase of the ENSO cycle has a significant influence on the position of the jet stream. This fast-moving river of air high in the atmosphere acts as a storm track and separates cold, northern air from warmer, southern air. When the jet stream shifts, it dramatically alters temperature and precipitation patterns across the country. This year’s specific pattern is causing the jet stream to dip further south in certain regions, inviting cold arctic air and moisture to collide, creating ideal conditions for significant and early snowfall.

States Most Likely to See Early, Heavy Snow

Based on expert analysis of these shifting jet stream patterns, certain regions are on high alert for a winter season that starts with a bang. Here’s a breakdown of the areas forecasters are watching most closely.

The Pacific Northwest

This region is often one of the first to feel the effects of a strong winter pattern. The jet stream’s path over the northern Pacific can deliver consistent moisture and cold temperatures straight into these states.

Washington & Oregon: Both states, particularly in the Cascade Mountains, are primed for heavy, early-season snowfall. This is great news for ski resorts like Mount Baker and Mount Hood, which could see substantial base depths accumulating as early as late October or early November, a few weeks ahead of their typical schedule. Lower elevations in cities like Seattle and Portland may also experience an earlier-than-usual dusting or slushy accumulation.
Idaho, Montana, & Wyoming: The Northern Rockies are directly in the path of this colder, wetter pattern. States like Montana and Wyoming, including areas around Yellowstone and Grand Teton National Parks, could see significant blizzards before Thanksgiving. This early snowpack is crucial for the region’s water supply but can also create challenging travel conditions on major routes like I-90 and I-80 sooner than usual.

The Upper Midwest and Great Lakes

This region is famous for its harsh winters, but this year the season may begin with more intensity. The primary factor here is the combination of early arctic air blasts and the still-warm waters of the Great Lakes.

Minnesota & Wisconsin: These states are expected to be on the receiving end of early “Alberta clippers,” fast-moving storm systems that drop from Canada and bring sharp temperature drops and several inches of snow. Instead of waiting until December, cities like Minneapolis and Green Bay could experience their first plowable snow in November.
Michigan (Especially the Upper Peninsula): Michigan is the epicenter for lake-effect snow. When frigid arctic air passes over the relatively warm waters of Lake Superior and Lake Michigan, it picks up immense amounts of moisture and dumps it as heavy snow on the downwind shores. An early-arriving cold pattern means the lakes will be even warmer, potentially fueling exceptionally intense lake-effect snow bands in areas like Marquette and the Keweenaw Peninsula sooner in the season.

The Northeast and New England

While the forecast for the Northeast is often more complex, early indicators point towards an active winter. The confluence of coastal storms (Nor’easters) and inland cold can lead to major snow events.

Upstate New York & Vermont: These areas, particularly in the Adirondack and Green Mountains, are likely to see an early start to their snow season. The same pattern affecting the Great Lakes can bring significant lake-effect snow to the Tug Hill Plateau in New York, a region that regularly measures snowfall in feet, not inches.
New Hampshire & Maine: Northern New England is positioned to receive snowfall from multiple types of storm systems. Forecasters are monitoring the potential for an early Nor’easter, which could bring heavy, wet snow to the region, potentially causing power outages if it arrives before trees have lost all their leaves.

How to Prepare for an Early Winter

Knowing that winter might arrive ahead of schedule gives you a valuable head start. Taking a few simple steps now can save you a lot of trouble later.

Home Preparation: Check the insulation and weather stripping around doors and windows to prevent heat loss. Have your furnace or heating system serviced to ensure it’s running efficiently and safely.
Vehicle Safety: This is the perfect time to create a winter emergency kit for your car. Include a blanket, flashlight, extra batteries, non-perishable snacks, water, a first-aid kit, an ice scraper, and a small shovel. Consider switching to winter tires sooner rather than later.
Yard and Equipment: Service your snow blower or make sure your shovels are in good condition. Rake leaves before the first heavy snow, as a thick, wet layer of leaves under snow can damage your lawn.

By staying informed about the forecast and preparing in advance, you can ensure a safe and comfortable transition into the winter season, no matter how early it begins.

Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate are these long-range winter forecasts? Long-range forecasts identify broad trends and patterns over a season. They are very good at predicting whether a region will be generally colder/warmer or wetter/drier than average. However, they cannot predict the exact timing and location of specific snowstorms weeks or months in advance. It’s best to use this information for general preparedness and pay attention to local, short-term forecasts as the season progresses.

What is the difference between El Niño and La Niña? Both are opposite phases of the ENSO cycle. La Niña involves cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, which typically pushes the jet stream northward, leading to colder, stormier conditions in the northern U.S. and drier conditions in the south. El Niño features warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures, often resulting in a more southern storm track, bringing more moisture to the southern U.S. and warmer weather to the north.

Does a “polar vortex” mean more snow? Not necessarily for everyone. The polar vortex is a large area of low pressure and cold air that always exists surrounding the North Pole. When it is strong and stable, it keeps the coldest air locked up in the arctic. When it weakens or is disrupted, it can wobble and send lobes of extremely cold arctic air south into the U.S. If this cold air meets moisture, it can produce significant snowfall, but its path determines which regions get hit the hardest.